Mortgage Rates Jump 4.9% Despite Federal Funds Rate Holding Steady at 3.64%
While the Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged, mortgage rates have surged from 6.11% to 6.41%, creating a disconnect that typically signals market concerns about long-term inflation or credit risk. This divergence makes homebuying significantly more expensive even without Fed action, potentially cooling housing demand.
Dual Axis LineConsumer Prices Rise 97.7% Alongside Time, Tracking $490B to $738B Retail Sales Growth
The Consumer Price Index shows a near-perfect correlation with time progression, rising from 252.6 in 2019 to 327.5 recently, while retail sales surged from $490 billion to $738 billion. This synchronized growth pattern reveals how inflation and consumer spending have moved together, suggesting price increases haven't dampened overall retail demand.
Dual Axis LineTreasury Yields and Mortgage Rates Show 97.2% Correlation, Both Climbing Above 4%
The 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rates move in near-perfect synchronization, with both now sitting above 4% compared to sub-3% levels in 2019. This tight relationship of 97.2% correlation shows how bond market movements directly impact homebuying costs, making Treasury yields a leading indicator for housing affordability.
ScatterNearly Perfect -98.6% Correlation Reveals Unemployment and Job Growth Move in Lock Step
The data shows an almost mathematically perfect inverse relationship between unemployment rate changes and payroll employment changes, confirming that every job added directly translates to lower unemployment. This tight correlation demonstrates the labor market's efficiency and makes unemployment rate a reliable real-time indicator of job market health.
ScatterHousing Starts Hold at 1.49 Million Despite 6.41% Mortgage Rates and Rising Construction Costs
Despite mortgage rates climbing above 6% and ongoing inflation pressures, housing starts have maintained relatively stable levels around 1.49 million units. This resilience suggests strong underlying housing demand or that builders are pushing forward with projects already in the pipeline, though future starts may face headwinds from current financing conditions.
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